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by weimerica 1766 days ago
The Census was conducted for 2020 - how many have fled in light of the egregious lockdowns?
2 comments

Probably just a handful of internet cranks. How many would you estimate?
Based on the influx of license plates in my once idyllic community, far too many.
According to postal service data, it was an extra 1.7% compared to 2019:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/19/upshot/how-th...

Which is not small, but it bears out my anecdotal impression as an NYC resident- most of the people leaving are people who would have left in the next few years anyway, the pandemic just moved up their timeframe.

And no one moved to avoid the “egregious lockdowns”, it’s just that working from home is a lot harder in an NYC apartment compared to a house.

While I'm aware of specific exceptions, I expect that's the norm. People who had moving out of the city on their radar screens deciding that the past year was as good a time as any to accelerate the process.

The question will be whether the usual cycle (of about the past 20 years) of an equal or larger cohort of young people move in to replace them.

I've noticed a lot of NY plates where I live too. Since most people who live in NYC don't own cars, it seems like these must be people who are being displaced. I know quite a few New Yorkers who have moved upstate or out to Long Island semi-permanently.
Anecdotally, many NYCers own cars as family units, especially common in the non-Manhattan suburbs. It's just not typically a 1:1 adult/car pairing like the suburbs are.
Typo'd "non-Manhattan suburbs" -> "boroughs"
If you look at NYC as a whole (i.e. all 5 boroughs), 45% own cars, so a minority but still a lot of cars.

ADDED: Manhattan is about half that percentage but, again, still a lot of cars and people.

Specifically that's 45% of all households, not 45% of residents. Those rates are super low the closer you are to manhattan, and much higher as you reach the outer parts of the outer boroughs [https://edc.nyc/article/new-yorkers-and-their-cars]

And for context, the average US household owns about 1.9 cars. Not an apples-to-apples comparison, but its easy to see that NYC car ownership is MUCH lower than the nation on average. [https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/highlights_of_the_2...]

You're right. I misread the data.
The vacancy rate in Manhattan is around 11% today compared to the more typical 1.5%-2%. Im sure it will come back over time.
Curious how much of that rate is because of AirBnB's and VRBOs closing out with no travelers and these units hitting the market vs people moving away...
9-10% of the 8.8 million would be 800-900k, taking population back to about 2010 levels.
Not sure if it’s that many but who knows. Below 34th St is around 17%. Rents are about 20% cheaper than before the pandemic. Here’s an article detailing this:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/manhat...

That’s from back in May - things have changed quite a bit since then:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/real...

In June they were already back to only 11% down, and it’s been accelerating since then. I doubt it’ll stabilize at pre-pandemic levels for a while, but it’s nowhere near where it was even 6 months ago

Just so you know, you're dead, and it looks like this comment is what did it. Many of your comments are reasonably substantive, so I thought you should know.