Which is not small, but it bears out my anecdotal impression as an NYC resident- most of the people leaving are people who would have left in the next few years anyway, the pandemic just moved up their timeframe.
And no one moved to avoid the “egregious lockdowns”, it’s just that working from home is a lot harder in an NYC apartment compared to a house.
While I'm aware of specific exceptions, I expect that's the norm. People who had moving out of the city on their radar screens deciding that the past year was as good a time as any to accelerate the process.
The question will be whether the usual cycle (of about the past 20 years) of an equal or larger cohort of young people move in to replace them.
I've noticed a lot of NY plates where I live too. Since most people who live in NYC don't own cars, it seems like these must be people who are being displaced. I know quite a few New Yorkers who have moved upstate or out to Long Island semi-permanently.
Anecdotally, many NYCers own cars as family units, especially common in the non-Manhattan suburbs. It's just not typically a 1:1 adult/car pairing like the suburbs are.
Specifically that's 45% of all households, not 45% of residents. Those rates are super low the closer you are to manhattan, and much higher as you reach the outer parts of the outer boroughs [https://edc.nyc/article/new-yorkers-and-their-cars]
Curious how much of that rate is because of AirBnB's and VRBOs closing out with no travelers and these units hitting the market vs people moving away...
Not sure if it’s that many but who knows. Below 34th St is around 17%. Rents are about 20% cheaper than before the pandemic. Here’s an article detailing this:
In June they were already back to only 11% down, and it’s been accelerating since then. I doubt it’ll stabilize at pre-pandemic levels for a while, but it’s nowhere near where it was even 6 months ago
Just so you know, you're dead, and it looks like this comment is what did it. Many of your comments are reasonably substantive, so I thought you should know.