[TheBobinator]

US has energy independance due to Fracking so it's pulling out and leaving behind all sorts of toys while handing the Taliban a political victory. China is dependant on ME energy imports and Russia due to its collapsing demographics only cares about taking the Carpathanian mountains and a chunk of Turkey to have a defensible border.

The Chinese need to take Taiwan to break out of the first island chain to secure energy Imports, but even if they take Taiwan this year or next, they now have to deal with a Taliban 3-5 years down the road that have American training and arms and all of whom have experience fighting Americans for the last 20 years. So if they take Taiwan they'll end in a direct conflict with Japan, Indonesia and India while the world shifts it supply chain to India whom has healthier demographics than China, and even if China manages to maintain its energy supply chain, it has to deal with disruption in the middle east and has to ship troops over to fight an arguably better equipped and more experienced adversary.

Should be interesting to see how this one plays out.

[randomopining]

The Russia take makes no sense. They already have physical defense. They’re just trying to re-carve their sphere that they had.

China has no need for invading Afghanistan. They’re just gonna make clever minimalistic deals with the Taliban to extract rare metals and such. That’s all they need there.

China’s Achilles heel is their burning desire for Taiwan and to always save face, as well as their imports of oil. Other than that they’re a tough enemy.

I’m glad Biden recalibrated towards taking on the CCP since they’re clearly our largest threat and also the free worlds.