[dragonwriter]

> agree that it can in principle work over generations (and there's a solid argument that's precisely what happened in Germany and Japan after World War

Germany and Japan were occupied (excluding the post-1955 nominal occupation of Germany because the Cold War prevented agreement on a formal end) for less time than Afghanistan when you add them together. To the extent something worked there but not in Afghanistan, it had nothing to do with it taking “generations”.

[SpicyLemonZest]

Political factors encouraged people to consider the “occupation” phase over quickly, but parts of Japan were under direct US civil administration until 1972, and both countries to this day have an order of magnitude more troops than Afghanistan did. If a German 20 years after World War II were plotting to restore the Nazi government, “the US might just shoot us all” would have to be part of the calculation.

Germany and Japan were also quite a bit more successful at actually ending the organizations occupying troops found unacceptable.

[throwaway894345]

Germany already had democratic values and Japan had been formally westernizing for a century prior.