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by simondotau 1771 days ago
From Apple's technical summary:

"The threshold is selected to provide an extremely low (1 in 1 trillion) probability of incorrectly flagging a given account. This is further mitigated by a manual review process wherein Apple reviews each report to confirm there is a match..."

So it's 1 in 1 trillion per account PRIOR to manual review in which the odds of error get reduced even further.