[didjathinkmess]

"It is still unknown whether COVID-19 Variants are evolving randomly or under the selection pressure generated by mitigation efforts."

Very interesting. My thesis for the new highly contagious variants is they are from the vaccinated because of the virus's escape mechanism. And on cue here we have a mention of the phenomenon in a medical study.

Oh well, postponing all judgement until it's peer reviewed. And while we're at it, how about study on head to head vaccinated vs unvaccinated mutation frequency.

[criticaltinker]

> they are due to an escape mechanism sprung from the vaccinated

Hopefully you're aware that viruses accumulate mutations randomly by chance over time. The only way mutations can be outright stopped is through an immune response that completely neutralizes the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Determining if mutations originated in a vaccinated or unvaccinated host is a pretty useless endeavor that would only serve as fodder for divisive discussion. The fact is that mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation alone.

With that said, worrying about viral evolution undermining the efficacy of the vaccine is a valid concern.

In general a leaky vaccine is one that keeps the host alive without necessarily stopping further infection and transmission. These conditions contribute to an environment that can allow the virus to accumulate mutations which eventually lead to immune escape [1][2].

Because the current mRNA vaccines are leaky and also induce an immune response highly targeted toward the spike protein RBD, there is concern that mass vaccination may create tremendous selective pressure which further enhances the fitness of the virus [3]. It's difficult to predict if such selective pressure will lead to enhanced virulence or infectiousness, but so far many variants of concern have mutations impacting the spike protein RBD. These mutations result in partial immune escape and manifest as increased infectiousness, reduced vaccine efficiency, and also reduced immunity in naturally infected individuals [4][5][6].

[1] The adaptive evolution of virulence: a review of theoretical predictions and empirical tests https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26302775/

[2] Why does drug resistance readily evolve but vaccine resistance does not? https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2016...

[3] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/

[4] SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion by the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant of concern https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/30/scie...

[5] mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03324-6

[6] Reduced sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta to antibody neutralization https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03777-9

[zeroimpl]

I think a good way to dumb this down is to use bacteria as an example. Most people know that improper use of antibiotics is leading to a surge of antibiotic-resistant superbugs. This is basically the same mechanism as far as I’m aware - evolution due to selection pressure.

If vaccinated people also keep wearing masks and social distancing, dangerous mutations should be much less likely.

[a0-prw]

> The fact is that mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation alone.

Selection among these mutations will occur. The virus with the pre-vaccine, spike protein will be largely blocked from replicating, and mutations which have spike proteins that better enable infection will be selected for. Welcome to evolution ;)