[simondotau]

Hypothetically that's possible, although all three steps you listed are exceedingly non-trivial. The notion that an attacker could pull off two of those steps let alone three is borderline fanciful. In addition, their target must also qualifies with the necessary prerequisites:

• has an iPhone;

• has children;

• took photos of their children which could be mistaken for CSAM by a sloppy reviewer;

• is of sufficiently high importance to justify the effort.

And after that insane effort, all you've done is inconvenience your target for a little while until child safety people investigate your family situation and discover that the photos which got flagged were not actually CSAM.

Immediately after the investigation process discovers the hash fraud, Apple will immediately start delving into exactly how their hash algorithm failed in this instance, improving it to mitigate this exploit. So this target better be worth it!

If this was a plausible exploit, surely it would have already happened to people with Android phones since Google has been doing pretty much the exact same scanning of customer images for over five years. (The only difference with what Apple is now doing is where the hashing is performed—but this makes no functional difference to the viability of your hypothetical exploit.)