[jstx1]

You can't personally experience large trends that happen over decades and centuries and all over the globe. And each individual data point can be dismissed as "this is just weather" or "extreme events like this have happened in the past".

[psiconaut]

Sure, I know that :)

Today, many people are experiencing very unlikely events, unknown to them and to previous generations. While you cannot experience a trend, you do modulate your perception about what an improbable likelihood feels like. That, I feel, is very powerful to nuance certain varieties of skepticism.

I think people don't vote (or buy, or move) based on documented trends, standard deviations or moving averages, but on subjective perception of what future will be like. That is, inter-subjective bets, updated from day to day.

I guess very few people in certain countries would have bet that they would lose their homes to a summer flood or fire.