[heresie-dabord]

> electrical cars are likely to be worse off than regular cars due to generally higher weight.

Given that a Nissan LEAF weighs about the same as a Honda CR-V, and that there are many EVs that have the same weight or are lighter than the Nissan LEAF, I would say that you are considering only a select group of EVs.

[tk75x]

From https://www.easyelectriccars.com/how-much-do-electric-cars-w...

Here are some examples of popular electric cars and how much they weigh in order of weight:

    Model X Long Range – 2459 kg without passengers or fuel (7 adult capacity).
    Tesla Model S Performance – 2241 kg without passengers or cargo (5 adult capacity).
    Tesla Model S Long Range – 2215 kg without passengers of cargo (5 adult capacity).
    Model 3 Performance and Long Range AWD – 1847 kg without passengers or fuel (5 adult capacity).
    Nissan Leaf – 1775 kg without passengers or fuel (5 adult capacity).
    Chevrolet Bolt – 1616 kg without passengers or fuel (5 adult capacity).
    Opel/Vauxhall Ampera-E – 1611 kg without passengers or fuel (5 adult capacity).
    Renault Zoe, 44 kWh – 1480 kg without passengers or fuel (5 adult capacity).
    Hyundai Kona – 1399 kg without passengers or fuel (5 adult capacity).
    BMW i3 – 1343 kg without passengers or fuel (5 adult capacity). 

Based on this, and the upcoming plans of many automakers to launch pickup truck and SUV type EVs, I would say that a significant portion of EVs will be heavier than the average car on the road currently.

[heresie-dabord]

The EV market is about 2% of car sales in the US. I doubt that we would be right to predict double-digit growth happening suddenly.

A Ford F150 (the most popular pick-up truck) weighs about the same as the Tesla Model 3. The top-selling vehicles in the US are all pick-up trucks.

The Toyota Camry (a popular sedan) weighs about the same as the Nissan LEAF. The Prius Prime is also in this weight range.

A Honda Fit (a popular small car) weight about the same as a Smart EQ. Small cars are not what US consumers are choosing.

Your argument is a hypothetical projection of Tesla-class EVs into a very large market-share. In reality, consumers are choosing larger, heavier ICE vehicles.

[tk75x]

Your argument proves my point. The customers that are currently choosing larger, heavier ICE vehicles will choose the same form factor of EV when given the option, and that F150 which currently weighs the same as a Tesla Model 3 will add on however many hundreds of pounds a battery pack weighs. Same goes for the Camry, it weighs the same as a LEAF (a much smaller car) now, but when you add the battery pack in the bottom, now it weighs the same as a Model S.

[heresie-dabord]

I see, you imagine the current ICE-Vs with batteries. But US consumers want large vehicles and ICE-comparable range.

Very large EV batteries are expensive. Your conjecture may hold if the cost of Tesla-sized batteries becomes much cheaper (approximately half the current 2021 cost).

EVs are likely to remain a small market in the US. Hybrids make more sense for cost and range. In Europe, the EV market is growing rapidly. Although some people can afford the Tesla, small EVs are popular in Europe. And the small EVs are not especially heavy vehicles, as the data show.

[kebman]

* Weight of the average Small family car (C) (same class as the Nissan Leaf): 1,365 kg ^[1]

* Weight of the Nissan Leaf: 1,560 kg ^[2]

Difference: 1,560-1,365 = 195 kg.

So about two washing machines in difference... :) And that's by giving you credit by comparing the heaviest average within the same car class. The lightest one yields a three washing machine diff.

[1]: https://carroar.com/average-car-weight/#:~:text=An%20average....

[2]: https://www.guideautoweb.com/en/makes/nissan/leaf/2019/speci...

[heresie-dabord]

I think we differ in our perception of "small" and "mid-size" car.

But even so, 195 kg is the weight of a driver and passenger. If we consider this to be a decisive factor in pollution, we had better also consider the obesity epidemic as a factor in tire wear. ^_^

[kebman]

Excuse me, "perception"? I used an industry standard, pal.

[heresie-dabord]

One possible explanation is that I live in a different market. In any case, the weight comparisons are the real data to use. The Nissan LEAF is heavier than some cars, but much lighter than the most popular ICE-V choices being made by consumers.

[sokoloff]

Our two cars are a 2015 LEAF and a 2005 CR-V. These aren’t directly competitive cars IMO. The CR-V has much more interior and cargo space, obviously longer range, and better winter road performance.

The LEAF is more directly comparable to a Nissan Versa in size and capability (3500# vs 2500# curb weight).