| The math on the PoW energy FUD just doesn't check out. - At current levels, bitcoin uses very roughly 0.1% of global electricity but electricity only represents 25% of fossil fuels emissions so current PoW contribution to global emissions = 0.025%, ie a rounding error. This issue is currently a total red herring. Now let's project into the future. - bitcoin total addressable market cap if it took over the entire global monetary world (full global monetary premium): ~ 250tn or 300x from here implying a worst case outcome of 7.5% of global emissions, IF this happened TODAY and hashpower linearly tracked price. This is impossible off the bat because building out that infrastructure would take at least a decade. But more importantly it will take a decade or two for price to get there, by which time... - The block subsidy will have gotten cut by ~ 10 (three halving cycles). Transaction fees might grow of course so let's say 5x lower which gets us back to 1.5% of global emissions. - Add to that the following: - 30% of CURRENT electricity production is stranded / wasted. All terminal bitcoin energy usage needs to do is tap into 5% of that to be emissions neutral. And it's heavily skewed towards tapping into that exclusively as that's the cheapest source and PoW is location neutral. - the proof of work energy mix skews towards not only wasted / stranded but renewable which is trending towards being the cheapest form of energy. - green power production is on an exponential adoption curve and enough sunlight hits the earth to power humanity for a year. Clean energy is there in amounts dwarfing societal needs, it's just a matter of harnessing it. This doesn't even include geothermal or nuclear. - At an even higher level, if you got to this point, you would have replaced all the fiat systems in the world thereby:
- eliminating the energy spent on maintaining the fiat system which is easily more than 1.5% of global emissions
- flipping the world into a hard money world that is no longer incentivized to consume at all costs (read misallocate capital) ergo hugely reducing conspicuous consumption / GDP growth at all costs which is arguably the biggest driver of unnecessary emissions - This final line of thought would have you conclude flipping to PoW would be emissions negative in the long run, but you don't really need to go there though, the energy numbers alone make this at best a chronically misunderstood narrative. |
How does this argument make sense? Let's split up the world's energy consumption into 0.025% emission sized chunks in some arbitrary way we choose. Does nothing then make any difference, since everything is just a rounding error? The question is, does bitcoin provide value for the emissions it generates? For what it's worth, estimates seem to put the current usage at around 0.6% of total worldwide energy consumption.