[CarelessExpert]

You are failing to account for identity politics.

I think it's far more likely that the expressed reasons you cite are, for many (I'd bet 15-20% of the population), just rationalizations for the underlying reason which is that being anti-covid-vaccine is now a part of some folks political, cultural, and/or religious identity.

And it is damn tough to break through something like that. That's doubly true when political and religious leaders are actively pushing people to not get vaccinated.

[dabbledash]

No, I’m not discounting it. That’s what I’m talking about when i refer to people resistant to things “pushed from above.” I’m saying that’s part of the issue, and it’s only going to be solved (if it can be), by depoliticizing the issue and making it a mundane medical concern. And that’s going to take time, and backing off the stick.

Or… you know, just give people 500 bucks (including everybody who already did it.)