[ScaleneTriangle]

I find the theory that the NSA knows something about quantum computing that the public does not a bit compelling. Mainly because it is a seemingly simple explanation.

The papers primary argument against this theory seems to be that the NSAs budget for related work is not high enough to suggest that they are concerned about this or have the capability of discovering this. However, I believe that it is likely that this budget was allocated before these revelations about quantum computing. And that the discovery did not have to come from quantum computing research.

The next argument is more compelling, it references experts saying that this type of development is not coming soon. But this could possibly incorrect of the scale of investment by an entity is much larger than publically known.

For there to be something that the NSA knows that the public does not, it would probably have to have been discovered by an entity with more funding. Like another nation, and the NSA found out about it through intelligence collection.

For this to be the case, an entity would have to have invested significantly and also leaked the results of this investment. Or perhaps just the scale of the investment leaked and that was enough to elicit concern.

In short, the most straight forward explanation is IMO more plausible than the paper suggests.