[eru]

So far Google's self-driving cars have vastly fewer accidents than humans have per mile. Or what kind of performance are you interested in? I am sure, they could also be made to drive faster than humans and still be safer on average thanks to superior reflexes and foresight.

But what do you mean by 'across the board'?

As far sources, a web search gives many articles about safety of self driving cars. See eg https://www.wsj.com/articles/self-driving-cars-could-save-ma...

[afrodc_]

Sorry for the delay. I don't get notifications. Not sure how people are so active on here with communication. Maybe you or someone could recommend a way?

Anyways:

> But what do you mean by 'across the board'?

By that I mean across all of the people driving in the US and their rate of incidence. For example, average miles driven, the amount of drivers and the rate of accidents. I think the most intriguing detail could be drawn from the rate of fatal accidents, since that's the most concerning, ignoring accidents that cause a casualty as I don't know the method for gathering that data off hand. One could glean a lot of info from that. Here's some rough numbers I gathered, and please forgive the naive approach to my data gathering to express a point:

Average miles driven/person[0]: 13,000 Average fatalities/year[1]: 37,000 Approximate number of licensed drivers[2]: 231,652,000

I don't have numbers for self-driving cars and the number of accidents, but regardless, would it perform the same with the same number of miles driven per car. Keep in mind that self-driving cars currently aren't navigating in all circumstances and will beep to make the human take control again. At least with Tesla.

[0] In 2019, there were almost 229 million licensed drivers in the United States. (Source: https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/) [1] Over 37,000 Americans die in automobile crashes per year. More than 90 people die in accidents every day. (Source: https://www.thewanderingrv.com/car-accident-statistics/) [2] https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2018/10/number-of-licensed-dr...

[eru]

Just to be clear: when I say self-driving, I mean whatever Waymo is doing. Tesla has assisted driving at best at the moment. Waymo is aiming for true self-driving.

Looking at fatalities would make the analysis easier, but when I last checked, Waymo hadn't driven enough miles to make a good comparison possible on that metric.

(They haven't killed anyone yet, but neither would the average human driver have done so, yet.)

So we would need to look at less dramatic accidents.

[afrodc_]

Yes I think what you're saying is accurate. My apprehension is the lack of concrete data we have for comparison at the time to whole heartedly put my life in the hands of engineers, for this particular thing. I do, however, look forward to a well vetted, tested and regulated, automated driving future.

[esailija]

You are probably comparing accidents of self-driving cars in optimal conditions (since they cannot even drive in any other conditions lol) to all accidents in all conditions in human drivers.

[eru]

Humans get into plenty of accidents under clear skies, too.

See https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/30/waymo-... which tries somewhat to correct for conditions.

[bumby]

I think there are some potential flaws with the “per mile” or “disengagement” metrics.[1] It feels very much like using LOC as a measure of software quality. Sure, it’s a metric but probably not a very good proxy for what we’re after.

[1] https://www.automotivetestingtechnologyinternational.com/ind...