I agree that one would think that Science Fiction writers would have enough of an imagination to be able to consider alternate futures (Cory CYA's by saying such a scenario would make a good SF story) - but there are already promising approaches to AGI: Minsky's "Society of Mind", Jeff Hawkins' neuro-based approaches, the fairly new Hinton idea GLOM: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/16/1021871/geoffrey... .
“By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence,” Kurzweil said in an interview at SXSW 2017.
2011 ray Kurzweil predicts the singularity (enabled by super-intelligent AIs) will occur by 2045, 34 years after the prediction was made.
So until his revised timeline for 2029 the distance into the future before we achieve strong AI and hence the singularity was, according to it's most optimistic proponents, receding by more than 1 year per year.
I wonder what it was that lead him to revise his timeline so aggressively. I think all of those predictions were unfounded, until we have a solid concept for an architecture and a plan for implementing it an informed timeline isn't possible.
That's funny. Of course, I was referring to Asimov's Elevator Effect, which is that if aliens visited NYC with some probe in 1800 and then in 1950, they would be astonished at all the very tall buildings, and would have to assume people were now living in these tall towers for reasons TBD. They would not know that elevators had been invented, and hence, the buildings would only be occupied 8 hours per day or so; and nobody would live in them. Elevators allowed this major unexpected result. There is more, I couldn't find the actual essay.
1993 - Vernor Vinge predicts super-intelligent AIs 'within 30 years'.
2011 ray Kurzweil predicts the singularity (enabled by super-intelligent AIs) will occur by 2045, 34 years after the prediction was made.
So until his revised timeline for 2029 the distance into the future before we achieve strong AI and hence the singularity was, according to it's most optimistic proponents, receding by more than 1 year per year.
I wonder what it was that lead him to revise his timeline so aggressively. I think all of those predictions were unfounded, until we have a solid concept for an architecture and a plan for implementing it an informed timeline isn't possible.