[xt00]

This seems logical, especially if the person who got bronze was not expecting to get higher. If the person who had gotten gold previously got bronze they probably are not going to be feeling this way so, so a bit of an expectations game too potentially..

[bombcar]

If you take some simple theory - say that the top five people will be roughly the same across any tries, and three will metal, then the bronze medal winner is likely to be someone who wasn't certain they could medal at all.