[estebank]

>> B. If one doesn’t take the vaccine, one’s chances of dying or being disabled for years or permanently are much higher.

>But for a young person with no co-morbidities, that chance is still basically 0%.

According to table "COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:" at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se..., the mortality rate for everyone under 40 years of age is 0.2%. That "is basically 0", but means that for every 1000 people infected, 2 will die. Roughly half of the US is under 40 years old (https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...). If no-one had gotten vaccinated, you would expect to see 320,000 deaths in that age group. According to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Se..., we've had 286,000 deaths so far in that age group.

>> C. If one doesn’t take the vaccine there is a significant chance they give the virus to someone else, killing them.

> Even if others have taken the vaccine themselves? Either that particular risk is negligible if the vaccine works, or the vaccine doesn't work.

You're forgetting the number 1 law of large numbers. Things that have a very low chance of probability happen all the time at scale. The vaccine reduces the likelihood of individuals dying by orders of magnitude, and as a group it is a great tool to reduce the R0 under 1, but contagion and transmition is still possible, and every new infection we are rolling the dice on getting "lucky" with a new vaccine resistant variant.

[briefcomment]

From your cdc link, it looks like less than 10k people have died in the under 40 age bracket. Am I looking at the right data?

Also, are you aware you can be exposed to the virus and not be infected?

[estebank]

> From your cdc link, it looks like less than 10k people have died in the under 40 age bracket. Am I looking at the right data?

I added every age group between 0 and 39, but took the incorrect column (Deaths from all causes, which is obviously incorrect), which puts me off by an order of magnitude.

> Also, are you aware you can be exposed to the virus and not be infected?

That is true, like with any virus it is a statistics game. It is also true that the Delta variant is 1000x more virulent/transmissible, so likelihood of infection is much higher today than a year ago.

[mint2]

And since being vaccinated would have saved most of those 10k people and like a small handful have died from all of the vaccines across all age groups, and a small handful is orders of magnitude smaller than 10k. It does seem like a vaccine mandate even for under 40s is the smart thing to do.

That doesn’t even get into the benefit of preventing long Covid and being able to open the economy faster with fewer restrictions

[briefcomment]

And since we all know cholesterol and saturated fats are killers, we should ban butter and institute that everyone should have at least a tablespoon each of canola and sunflower oil a day. Except the science has now reversed to the point that polyunsaturated fats are being implicated as likely causes of obesity and metabolic disease.

You statement sounds far more confident than what the science would currently permit.

[Overton-Window]

> You're forgetting the number 1 law of large numbers. Things that have a very low chance of probability happen all the time at scale.

Severe reactions to experimental vaccines for example?