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by temphn 5443 days ago
There's a good list by Megan Mcardle here.

What people don't get is that increasing US debt is a short term fix. People are going to stop buying Treasuries and the US is going to default. It's just a question of whether it happens on Aug. 2 (unlikely) or in a few years (very likely).

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/07/getting-...

  - You just cut the IRS and all the accountants at Treasury, which means that the actual revenue you have to spend is $0.
  - The nation's nuclear arsenal is no longer being watched or maintained
  - The doors of federal prisons have been thrown open, because none of the guards will work without being paid, and the vendors will not deliver food, medical supplies, electricity,etc.
  - The border control stations are entirely unmanned, so anyone who can buy a plane ticket, or stroll across the Mexican border, is entering the country.  All the illegal immigrants currently in detention are released, since we don't have the money to put them on a plane, and we cannot actually simply leave them in a cell without electricity, sanitation, or food to see what happens.
  - All of our troops stationed abroad quickly run out of electricity or fuel.  Many of them are sitting in a desert with billions worth of equipment, and no way to get themselves or their equipment back to the US.
  - Our embassies are no longer operating, which will make things difficult for foreign travellers
  - No federal emergency assistance, or help fighting things like wildfires or floods. Sorry, tornado people!  Sorry, wildfire victims!  Try to live in the northeast next time!
  - Housing projects shut down, and Section 8 vouchers are not paid. Families hit the streets.
  - The money your local school district was expecting at the October 1 commencement of the 2012 fiscal year does not materialize, making it unclear who's going to be teaching your kids without a special property tax assessment.
  - The market for guaranteed student loans plunges into chaos. Hope your kid wasn't going to college this year!
  - The mortgage market evaporates. Hope you didn't need to buy or sell a house!
  - The FDIC and the PBGC suddenly don't have a government backstop for their funds, which has all sorts of interesting implications for your bank account.
  - The TSA shuts down. Yay! But don't worry about terrorist attacks, you TSA-lovers, because air traffic control shut down too.  Hope you don't have a vacation planned in August, much less any work travel.
  - Unemployment money is no longer going to the states, which means that pretty soon, it won't be going to the unemployed people.
3 comments

Are you being serious? Even Germany after WWII hadnt fallen into such anarchy. The truth is even if the monetary structure fails en-masse(highly unlikely), society would find a way to function. People will work for food, cigarettes, coffee.
Germany received a lot of help though. You cannot simply replicate that for the US.
In Soviet Russia, it was called Blat:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blat_%28term%29

> People are going to stop buying Treasuries and the US is going to default.

But doesn't China have to buy treasuries because of their trade imbalance?

And isn't it in our debt holders best interest to avoid total collapse so they can collect interest payments? Isn't owning U.S. debt a way to collect a fraction of our economic output? And if we have Depression level unemployment, there is less tax revenue generated?

> But doesn't China have to buy treasuries because of their trade imbalance?

Not really. China is increasingly buying other assets, instead of Treasuries: stocks, companies, real estate, etc. In the end, they will own the USA.

In fact this scenario was famously depicted by Warren Buffet in his "Squanderville versus Thriftville" essay: http://www.tradereform.org/2008/03/squanderville_versus_thri... Want some concrete examples?:

The chinese Lenovo acquired the IBM PC division in 2005.

Chinese oil and gas acquisitions: http://blogs.forbes.com/christopherhelman/2011/02/10/watch-o...

China's investments in U.S. up sharply: http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar/04/business/la-fi-china...

While I'm sure it will happen eventually, it's going to be awhile.

They have no way of dumping USD in the short term without seriously devaluing their own dollars. Not to mention a devaluation of the dollar would mean their export model goes to hell.

It is amazing how many of those listed items are symptoms of the failed war on drugs/terror and excessive government subsidies.