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by Maro 1790 days ago
Scanning various CUPED related pages, I read that it's a way to reduce the variance, and hence p-value. But CUPED is not changing the lift value (difference [or ratio] in means) between T and C itself (or at least, not in the examples I see). The fallacy I describe computes different means from historic lifts and substracts those. Ie. on the third table, the lift is 4.7%, not -1.6%.