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by quantumspandex
1792 days ago
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I think a lot has happened between 1960 and 2020:
smartphones, internet, machine learning, hubble telescope, internet of things, ecommerce ... Going from personal computer of the 1960s to what we have today in our pocket is an enormous achievement in itself so it's a bit disingenuous to list it off as a single word "personal computer". If we measure progress by whatever metrics: number of patents, number of scientific publication, ... in fact things are speeding up even more. |
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My point is that we don't have those mind blowing inventions that were hard to predict or see coming. Smartphones are the natural evolution of computer chips. Machine learning was already an active discipline in the 60's. In the 60s they were already seeing computing power increase at very fast rates. Internet things is, again, just an extension of general communication. And ecommerce is a real natural extension of the internet.
Compare that to a refrigerator. Before the refrigerator there was an entire industry of ice distribution. It was not a natural extension of really anything.
Same for the microwave. You MIGHT be able to argue that it was somewhat the natural extension of radio, just finally recognized but that's a stretch to think anyone would leap from radio waves to microwave ovens.
As for patent numbers and scientific publications, that doesn't really seem to indicate actual innovation. Rather, it points to population growth and more participation in those programs. Patents, in particular, are issued more out of defense than actual innovation.
What we aren't seeing is massively disruptive technologies. We've not see the power generation which makes fossil fuels obsolete. We aren't seeing the breakthrough in rockets that allow for space vacations. We aren't seeing flying cars. Instead, we are seeing cars getting gradually more efficient, batteries getting gradually better, and computing power getting gradually better.
Actual, honest to goodness, life changing innovation has just stopped.
That's not really all bad, but it does point to "we probably won't be like the gods" any time soon. Just like life got better in the new world from the 1600s to the 1800s (for the most part), I expect life to get better from here on out, but not so mindbogglingly better that 100 years from now it will be completely different from what we experience today. The only major difference in life in 100 years is going to the the impacts of climate change.