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by HWR_14
1787 days ago
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> we still don't have enough data to prove whether it is safer or more dangerous then an average human driver. I would point out that given the dangers involved with accidentally turning over a million vehicles into autonomous 5000 lbs missile, erroring on the side of caution seems fine. The benefits are quite low: if the autopilot had been on since inception between 20 and 100 lives would have been saved (I accept your "several billion miles" number and point out that that the average fatality rate is 1.1 per 100 million miles driven, but that is based on averaging in 40 year old cars with fewer safety features and shrinks ever year.). The costs could be astronomical: a simultaneous failure (security, mistraining, date bug, whatever) could result in hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths. Which means there are three errors to consider. (1) Obviously, some things (bugs, exploits) are unknowns and there will always be an inherit risk there. I would say that these risks may forever make self-driving cars too risky. (2) It is difficult to come up with any actual test of driving skills. This is especially true because any test will suddenly become the target so we have to have the test cover everything. (3) Actual driving errors: Both of the above assume that the AI can drive as well as a person. That's obviously difficult to do. And we would need to see a huge improvement to justify adding a new risk factor. |
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This is only the case if you look at the current system as the finished product. The biggest benefit is that it gets us closer to a true self driving system. That would not only save millions of lives, but it would revolutionize logistics and economics of transportation which can in turn reshape society.
>The costs could be astronomical: a simultaneous failure (security, mistraining, date bug, whatever) could result in hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths.
I have no idea what scenarios you are imaging that could lead to "hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths." Almost every Autopilot death in the US makes national news. There is no way hundreds of people could die without there being some type of intervention in the system.