| It's quite hard to predict short-term trends. My guess is that the economy will be mostly fine. We might see a little slowing after the reopening and we may see some more volatility in the markets as central bankers become less accommodative and perhaps have to respond to inflation if it continues to push higher. Debt (assuming you mean public debt) is a longer-term concern. Personally I doubt we'll see world leaders looking to address debt levels for another 5-10 years. The pandemic will probably be in mostly the same place in 6 months. Infections may pick up a little into the winter months, especially if there are new variants that are more resistant to the current vaccines. However, my guess is we'll have another round of vaccines coming which will keep deaths at manageable levels without having to fully lock down again. That said, fear will remain high enough that politicians can continue to push through their surveillance agendas and continue to erode personal freedoms as they see fit. Globalisation will become continue to be challenged as tensions between the US and China continue to escalate. Again, this is a longer-term concern, but I'm sure we'll see some notable progressions in that direction over the coming year. My guess is that social tensions will continue to worsen. I personally believe that multi-culturalism will fail long-term, but in the short-term we'll continue to see problems like racial tensions escalate in the West. We'll also continue to see unrest as the divide between rich and poor continues to grow, but luckily for the rich the media and political class will be more focused on dividing us by race so a unified voice for working class voters will be impossible -- poor white voters will continue to vote republican and poor minority voters will continue to vote democrat, neither have an incentive to do anything but pander to their racially divided electorates. Long-term we're done for. I suspect there are too many technological advancements coming and too many geopolitical risks for us not to screw something up. My guess is that the West will eventually enter a cold-war with China while social unrest will continue to rise. Politicians will respond to these threats by revoking more and more of our freedoms. Eventually something will break whether that's civil war (unlikely IMO), a hot war with China (more likely, but at least a decade or two out) or some technological disaster (genetically engineered viruses, AI, autonomous weaponry, etc). My advice to everyone is to enjoy this period of history. I think these next few decades are going to test us more than we've ever been tested before as a species. |