[tomjen3]

In the western world a lot more will die, hopefully most of them because they weren't vaccinated. In the non-western world a lot more will die because they couldn't get the shots. This also means that there is always a risk of a new covid variant that does not care about the vaccine.

I don't see new lockdowns unless we get a variant that can reliably breakthrough the vaccines. The reason is simple: lockdowns were barely accepted before, they won't be when it is percived to be peoples on fault.

On the downside: we are now seeing the effects of global warming, and the hurricane season has only barely started. No this doesn't mean we will do anything about it, but it does mean that it could get ugly, especially if the US gets hit with several large hurricanes.

Of course all of this assumes China won't do anything momentarily stupid, like trying to take Taiwan. Then everything is up in the air.