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by samatman 1793 days ago
Feels weird to invoke the Lindy Effect on Hacker News, but here we are.

The general premise (and Taleb didn't come up with this) is that for a phenomenon with no natural lifespan, you should assume you're halfway through its actual lifespan.

Biologically modern humans are about 100,000 years old, so I put our tombstone at 102021 A.D.

Now that could be wrong... in either direction! But I'm inclined to plan for the future such that we're as comfortable as we can be for the next hundred millennia.

1 comments

Seems presumptuous you would know what comfort means to humans in 100 millennia.

All while ignoring the discomfort millions within your own country experience today.

How nice of you to white knight for a future you won’t be around to witness and ignore reality as it is now.

I suppose reality now is too hard. May as well just keep going as you are and cross your fingers it matters in “100 millennia”.

That’s some self aggrandizing nonsense.

I have no respect for my countrymen. Still lost to imaginings of forever life. Even the ones who should know better.