[MereInterest]

The expectation can be significantly different from reality, because that's how humans work. We form an expectation of what something is intrinsically worth, and then get surprised when market conditions change. People still see that pinned price as the "true" price, and any differences as temporary fluctuations soon to be corrected once people change their minds.

I agree that it is illogical to expect a significant change in market price after several years of low demand. However, I don't think people behave perfectly logically, and so it is important to also determine what people are likely to do.