[irq11]

It is endemic. What you think of that fact is irrelevant. It’s a contagious respiratory virus with multiple animal reservoirs. Even if you could somehow vaccinate every person on earth tomorrow, the virus would still be here.

This virus is not going to be eliminated, and it’s well past time to move on from that discussion.

[biztos]

I was just thinking about this today as I prepare for another transatlantic flight: we seem to all be planning for a time when mask mandates and lockdowns are over.

But what if they're never over?

The US and Western Europe have, by now, enough high-quality vaccine for everyone, and we're all stuck at, what, 60% of the population vaccinated?

A bunch of people died, a bunch of people went broke, but during this pandemic the rich have mostly gotten a whole lot richer. Even the rich who don't think of themselves as rich: own a house in Silicon Valley, have a dozen years of 401K and some stock -- these people have done very well.

We have to fight the virus; but we also have to fight the anti-vaxxers and the apathetic, and we have to do it in a world where the people with real power are actually gonna be just fine if everything locks down for four months out of every year.

I've started trying to imagine life in that kind of future. Say two lockdowns every year, in a good year it's a month each time, in a bad year maybe you're locked in your apartment half the time, and that's for people who get their booster shot every year.

Maybe forever. What does society look like in that scenario?

[irq11]

> But what if they're never over?

They’re over. The only people clinging to them are either playing political games, or are completely uninformed about the scientific evidence (and yes, I include the CDC and LA county’s public health authorities in those groups).

Masks were maybe slightly better than nothing when we didn’t have vaccines. They are utterly pointless now. There is zero evidence that they have any marginal benefit in a vaccinated population. This stuff has risen to the level of superstition, and like any superstition, there will be adherents who refuse to let go. That’s fine, but they’re not reflecting science or rational thinking. They are marginal.

Those who are scared of the virus should get vaccinated. Those who are not can do whatever they like, but their choices do not affect me, and they don’t affect you.

[snowwrestler]

Smallpox is gone and polio is almost gone.

We have the technology to completely eradicate the 2019 novel coronavirus if we have the collective will to use it.

Other coronaviruses will evolve to infect humans, yes. We’ll never eradicate infectious disease in general. But we’re talking about one specific distinctive virus here. One for which we already have multiple effective vaccines.

[irq11]

Oh stop it.

Smallpox has exactly one host (us), had an amazingly effective vaccine, the virus doesn’t mutate quickly or spread as readily, and it still took almost 200 years to eradicate it.

Polio is NOT eradicated, it spreads only through contact with fecal matter, and the remaining areas where it is endemic make a great illustration of exactly why this virus isn’t going anywhere either: Afghanistan and Pakistan.

That you would suggest that either of these make an argument for eradication of a flu-like illness with multiple non-human hosts shows how detached from reality you have become.

[snowwrestler]

SARS-COV-2 is a single distinct virus with little variation. While it appears to be able to infect some domestic animals from human hosts, we have yet to find an animal reservoir. (If we had, that would be the end of the lab leak theory.)

And we have two vaccines against it with near 95% effectiveness, which compares with the estimated effectiveness of the smallpox vaccine.

If you want another point of comparison, look at measles. It’s not eradicated, but it’s not endemic either. In fact it is quite rare (far rarer than the flu) in counties with competent child vaccination programs.