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by killjoywashere 1801 days ago
A Jira plug-in to use some sort of Bayesian system to adjust developer priors at the task and sprint level. That would be amazing.
2 comments

Yeah I've always felt like the missing part of the loop (in the context of pointing stories) is looking at point estimates and then tracking how accurate they were, _by developer_. E.g., I throw 2 points, but it turns out the story takes something along the lines of 13 points, then my estimation was pretty low and my personal "estimation multiplier" is increased. Subsequently, actual point estimations could take the estimation multiplier into effect.

Of course, this is mostly a toy idea that's fun to think about, but seems pretty untenable given that it requires keeping track of time, which most developers hate. That, and there'd no doubt be incentive to game the system by padding estimates or other shenanigans.

Just look at completion rates within sprint. How many points did they commit to, how many did they finish. 2 weeks is a fine unit of time.
FogBugz used to do something of that nature. I never used it, so I'm not sure how well it worked out ultimately.