[kalleth]

Insightful, thank you! The entire project management industry doesn't have that great a "hit rate" -- consider the budget overruns for the last few Olympics, or for Crossrail.

I'm just not sure why software projects are "special" -- if you can avoid it being a project and instead make it ongoing OpEx like, for example, GDS managed for the UK in 2016, then great, you've sidestepped that, but until the entire PM industry discovers how to improve overall project management techniques, I don't see why we'd consider our industry "above" them.

[marcus_holmes]

> instead make it ongoing OpEx

Every non-tech startup founder who's approached me with "how long will it take to build an MVP for my startup idea?", I've answered with this. Development is an ongoing cost, a process, not a once-off capex cost.

I recommend to them going the other way. Start with "how much can you afford to pay a dev team sustainably?" then work out how many devs that works out to, then work out how long your MVP will take to build based on their estimates (and estimates are not deadlines).

Not quite the same as #no_estimates (which I also try to argue for whenever possible), but close.

[RogerL]

It's not special, except that for whatever reason people insist on treating random data as gospel.

How long until we cure retinoblastoma? Everyone understands there is no way to produce a meaningful timeline. There are too many inter-related unknowns - various causes, various treatment modalities, varying funding on various fundamental and applied research, no real idea if the final answer is gene therapy, nano-something, chemo, etc.

I used to develop software for a defense contractor, and it was pretty waterfall-y. But we built risks in, to an extent. Not by multiplying Sally by 1.3x, Joe by 2.7x or whatever, but you'd chart it all out, showing interconnections (x depends on Y, which depends on Z and Q, which...). And then roughly figure out risks of each of those sub-tasks going long.

The idea NOT being you then just multiply by a weight, and ta-da, you have an accurate schedule. The idea is that you have now identified particularly risky chain of events, and now you at least have a chance of managing risk. Every day/week you'd have a risk assessment meeting. Where are we on X, Y, Z. What can we do to get X back on track? Can't, okay, can we we-jigger the dependencies, or is this a hard slip? And so on. I've never seen this done on the commercial side, and it just seems like people are flying blind as a result.

"Waterfall is terrible" you reply. Sure. But when you are building an airplane, ya kinda need the 1553B/ARINC bus installed before you install and test the avionics. You can't attach the engines if the wings haven't shown up. You can't redesign the fuselage after the wing builder started building the wings (in general). These are hard, unavoidable dependencies, and changes are often extremely to destructively expensive (hence the endless mind numbing meetings arguing about change control).

It is just (IMO) not an unsolved problem, but unsolvable. Too many unknowns results in unpredictability. Your only bet is to manage the risks, adjust as necessary, and accept some things are just unknowable. Agile does that in one way, sophisticated waterfall in another.

[some_chap]

I'd say that software is "special" because it's ephemeral, meaning there's incredibly few limitations on the possibilities (or changes to requirements mid-project) when compared to projects involving physical items. It /can/ be managed like a physical engineering project, but the cost and time ramp up so severely that it's not practical for most situations.

[gadders]

A project plan is only a point in time prediction of a project end date. It should be continuously updated as new facts are known (scope changes, additional complexity, unknown risks happen).

Obviously as you progress through your project, you predicted end date should become more and more accurate.

A project plan, though, is a prediction of the future. I've not seen anyone that can predict the future perfectly. That's not to say that you shouldn't do it, but defective project management creates a project plan on Day 0 and then tries to bend reality to meet the plan.

*Obviously all the above is caveated with reasonableness - you do try and bend reality a certain amount to meet your plan, and you try and keep to your plan as much as possible.

[tonyedgecombe]

You can't really do that with the Olympics though as there is a hard deadline. Once you have a fixed date then either quality or cost are going to have to give.