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by timy2shoes 1801 days ago
> My naive understanding is that "smaller p-value" == "more likely result is true".

I think you're making the classic Prosecutor's fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy. In my experience, smaller p-value tends to be more of a measure of sample size than anything else, or an overly restrictive null distribution that is almost certain to be rejected.