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by rich_sasha
1801 days ago
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It would be, but such an imbalance of p-values is unrealistic. 10^-10 probability? If your probabilistic model includes even a one in a billion chance of messing up (10^-9), a p-value of 10^-10 is already too small. That’s before you look at 10^-40... so they are probably both wrong. A nice demo of this effect is DNA matching in criminology. Although DNA matching of suspects to DNA samples can be insanely accurate, in practice it is limited by the incidence of monozygotic (identical) twins, which is about 3 in 1,000. You cannot be more certain than this that you got a match, essentially. |
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