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by fatalisk 5451 days ago
"This time is different" because people have learned a lot from the first bubble. For the most part, investors are people who really understand the economics of technology, the economics of the deal and the mistakes of the past. I think there is a long way to go before any major burst. Granted with the amount of hype in the market and massive over-subscriptions (i.e. greed) there's bound to be a correction at some point. But, I don't think it will be as bad as before.
1 comments
chopsueyar 5451 days ago
The only reason it won't be as bad is because not that many people are employed by these companies this time.

Most people are already out of work or under-employed.

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fatalisk 5451 days ago
That's not true. My understanding was that the dot-com bubble was primarily a result of naive investment in technology. My point was that investors today are way more sophisticated when it comes to tech, therefore, they won't be blindly betting on every internet or mobile company. Venture Hack's Naval Ravikant describes the bifurcation of the funding situation in technology, where there is a long-tail of companies investors don't view as remarkable and so don't invest. Remember, those dot-bombs were pretty much worthless from the start in terms of the value they provided, and they had enormous nonsensical valuations. There was no such thing as determining product-market fit or customer development before product development, or even a blogosphere of information related to this kind of investment. Both investors and entrepreneurs are more prepared and more knowledgable today than they were in 1999. So I don't think the same kind of devastating burst is very likely.
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chopsueyar 5451 days ago
I disagree. There were quite a few dot-coms that could have been successful had they IPO'ed before the crash, and additional dot-coms that should have never been acquired, yet because of such an acquisition, allowed the ownership of the Dallas Mavericks.

The burst will not be as devastating simply because not as many people are directly involved.

I am still using eBay and Amazon, and even Yahoo is still around (which acquired Viaweb).

Do you honestly think Twitter is worth $8 billion dollars without a business model?

Please, read this book:

http://www.amazon.com/Exit-Strategy-Douglas-Rushkoff/dp/1887...

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