[Juliate]

> Oil companies don't have any special ability to predict the future state of a complex system.

No, but they definitely have the scientific knowledge to understand the scale at which they pump CO2 into the atmosphere and the first-order consequences this has.

> But anyway, how did Gore's predictions fare?

It's like when you fly a plane, never trust the instruments: "yeah, sure, the altimeter is going down, but you know, we're still in the air. Besides, the altimeter has a margin of error, so... we're good."

We have a song for that in France: "Tout va très bien, Madame la Marquise, tout va très bien, tout va très bien...".

[premium-lizard]

> No, but they definitely have the scientific knowledge to understand the scale at which they pump CO2 into the atmosphere and the first-order consequences this has.

Check your hypothesis. There have been times in the past when CO2 went from, say, 3000 to 4000. Did the global average temperature do what you think it should?

> It's like when you fly a plane

I'm not seeing a number of correct predictions out of total predictions. What do we usually think when somebody has a hypothesis, and based on that hypothesis they make some testable predictions, and the predictions don't come true?

[scrollaway]

You're not seeing correct predictions because you're choosing to look at the worst ones and you're not looking at the more average ones.

I've seen dozens of instances of fairly scary predictions from 2000ish which were originally for 2050 and are coming true the last five years.

Weather maps predicting scorching heat in France which i remember thinking "there's no way this will ever be that bad", and what do you know, it is that bad.

Warnings about floods, glaciers entirely disappearing, heat domes.

Warnings about the possibility of methane reservoirs releasing into the atmosphere as permafrost melts.

These aren't warnings anymore, they're news stories from the past couple years.

Do you somehow believe it's just a coincidence? That it'll get better, we don't need to do anything?

Everything about what you're saying is a choice you are making. You are choosing to dismiss evidence. Choosing to adopt an attitude which lets you ignore reality. Choosing to put your fingers in your ears. Choosing to compare events that happen over millennia to events that happen over decades.

Make better choices.