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by secnono
1797 days ago
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Easy, once the hospitals get overwhelmed nobody will be able to get hospital treatment. Everyone who needs to be hospitalized who isn't hospitalized WILL DIE. The hospitalization rate is about 20%. So right off the top we'll see about 6 million deaths. Everyone who is sick will be stuck at home with family members, entire households will get sick, and they will keep re-infecting each other because, doubly difficult is the fact that there are multiple variants being spread, so it's possible to get re-infected with a different variant, the immune systems of the sick are overwhelmed and compromised. We'll see entire households dying. This is where the death rates really start to climb, it wouldn't surprise me if we see 8-9 Million deaths from this group. Combine COVID with other illnesses and you get very high death rates. Because Myanmar will be acting like a petri dish we'll start to see all kinds of variants get spawned, we could end up with a version the burns itself out. We could get a version that has 10-12 day incubation period where people are asymptomatic but that has a 50-80% death rate, a version like this could sweep back through the world with devastating effects. Because some people are vaccinated and the vaccine is only 90% effective, we'll see people who are vaccinated who get sick. One of the variants could end up not be prevented by the vaccine, and that version could boomerang back through the world. A lot of really bad things are possible. |
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...
Mutation is always a risk, but another 25 million isn't a substantial increase in infected. There have already been 1-2+ billion infections globally, and 100+ million in the USA.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...
Edited to update hospitzation rate.