[eihli]

Had an idea when I saw one of these on a cruise ship.

Every time we spent time within eyesight of the machine, I timed it and counted how many plays went in. After a couple of days, I had something resembling an average number of plays per hour. The machine was one where the prizes were visible, so you could tell how many had been won.

Now I had a bound on the number of plays per prize.

Estimate number of plays based on amount of time passed. Check if prize has been claimed. If not, it's due.

You don't have to be too accurate with your numbers. Just get within ~50% to beat the vig.