[IshKebab]

I don't think you can cite the technology that has advanced most dramatically out of all the technologies to support some kind of rule that all technology inevitably advances rapidly.

Yes they'll get better, but they might get 10% better over the next 20 years or something like that.

[mchusma]

Historical rate of improvement is significantly faster.

50% improvement in energy density over 10 years would be more conservative than most estimates, which range considerably but none I could find were worse than that:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thedriven.io/2021/04/28/how-ele...

https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/ee/d0ee0268...

[samatman]

I would say that the poster you're replying to is more directionally accurate than you are.

I read them as saying "transistors have steadily marched toward the theoretical limit in size, batteries will do the same for power"— and that isn't a 10% improvement from where we're sitting now. I couldn't tell you offhand what it is, but it's at least double density.