[johbjo]

Consumer price inflation won't rise unless a relevant proportion of consumers get more money to spend. There should be enough slack behind all goods in the cpi basket that disruptions won't permanently affect the price of milk, bread, toilet paper, flat panel TVs and so on.

It is true that there is exploding inflation in asset prices brought by central bank credit, but it won't affect the price of milk and bread.

[new_realist]

The demand for those things is fixed. Even TVs—everyone’s already upgraded to 4K. It’s discretionary items, like cars, housing, renovations, luxury appliances, and elite schools, that will experience inflation. Human wants are infinite.

[johbjo]

Yes, probably true.

Those (cars, housing, renovations, education) are things financed by debt and can continue rising. But I suspect they are conveniently down-weighted from the CPI.

For example, if they let the CPI-entry be monthly car payments instead of cash price, then CPI inflation is flat as long as rates are falling.