[asmos7]

One of the predicted winners of climate change is Russia. It's supposed to thaw fertile lands that are currently under permafrost and open up new shipping lanes. Obviously even Russia will experience some downsides but the positives could easily outweigh the bad.

[Retric]

Everything has tradeoffs. Various studies of the economic impact of climate change suggested some warming would be a net positive for northern countries but sufficient warming would be universally bad for every country. We have already reached that point, the issue for the north isn’t just an increase in average temperatures it’s an increase in variability. Canada wasn’t prepared for 120f temperatures and spending money to prepare for such rare events is hard to justify. On the other hand failing to prepare has real consequences.

Plus, retreating permafrost is a serious issue for infrastructure built on top of it. Combined with new pests and everything put together it’s a complex issue to analyze.

[cmrdporcupine]

That's not how it works. Climate change might lead to a modest average temperature increase in the northern parts of Canada and Russia but that is not necessarily going to make those places arable because along with climate change comes a dramatic increase in variability.

As we just saw in the PNW/BC heat bubble, climate change is not just an increase in average temp, it is a dramatic and worrisome increase in the standard deviation of temperatures. Which means here in Canada and in continental climates like Siberia there will be dramatic swings in temperature, forest fires, and drought. That is, there will still be extreme cold temperatures in the winter, just not reliably so, and summers could be all over the map.

It's already happening. Heat waves in April followed by very late frosts in May, for example. Hard to farm in those conditions, trust me.

Not to mention melting glaciers and declining snowpack means in the longer/medium term the rivers which provide the water for these vast continental regions dry up or shrink dramatically. See the Columbia Icefields / Athabasca glacier and the Bow glacier in western Canada. Not a good situation. Just came back from the Columbia Icefields and it's... as depressing as usual. Can't even walk up to the ice anymore like when I was last there a decade ago.

I'll just stay here in the great lakes, lots of water for now.

[_huayra_]

Farming on permafrost sounds like the makings for patient 0 of some previously-frozen virus coming along and causing the next global pandemic :(

[rubyn00bie]

YES! I’m more scared of what’s in the permafrost we’re about to unleash than any other part of global warming... though most of that fear, for me, is from all that trapped methane’s effect on the atmosphere and climate. The awful contagions, viruses, bacteria, and death buried/hidden/locked away are seeming more and more like an apocalyptic “fatality” (think Mortal Kombat) move at this point...

[LargoLasskhyfv]

I wonder how the released methane will change the color of the northern lights...