[pasabagi]

> E. Ethiopia is currently a divided country. But when it comes to the dam, its people are 100% on the same page.

If I was an unpopular regime, I would see this, and feel pretty good about my chances of exploiting it. A war you can probably win against a much more powerful enemy, over an issue you have broad support for, is like a golden goose for an unstable government.

You can be as obnoxious and intransigent as you like, because the negotiations will be behind closed doors, and you'll still seem like you're representing the national interest.

On the other hand, if you're Egypt, a war you will probably lose is also very valuable. It's a good way to rally people around the flag when it looks like it might happen, then if it does come down to it, often 'probably losing' a war is way better than definitely losing a leadership challenge.

So again, the incentives are to be obnoxious and intransigent. You don't want this issue to go away - it's a really good option to have in your back pocket if you get into trouble.

So the politics here are pretty bleak.