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by TheOtherHobbes 1798 days ago
That's not a position the huge majority of doctors and scientists agree with.

Why should anyone believe you instead of them?

2 comments

This straight appeal to authority is particularly weak given the last year or so.

- lab leak hypothesis

- “masks don’t work”

- “not transmissible via the air”

- “it’s not a pandemic, don’t panic”

The authority has shown its capacity to be wrong here repeatedly and in obvious ways. This isn’t direct support of what OP said, but appeal to authority does little for me. The specifics matter.

The appeal to scientific authority is only weak if you are looking for a way to downplay the virus. How many scientific authorities were saying "It's not a pandemic, don't panic"?
I think the "not a pandemic" was a reference to the WHO's month-plus delay in declaring a pandemic.

There was definitely a mindset of potential panic being worse than the disease itself early on. Perhaps not downplaying per se, so much as resisting making any major pronouncements of danger until the evidence was overwhelming.

I’m not looking to downplay the virus - the initial downplay came from Vox and the NYT (journalists, not scientists - but often pretending they’re delivering scientific consensus): https://medium.com/@balajis/citations-for-the-recode-handsha...

They also framed virus fears at the time as racism and complained about border closures.

The “masks don’t work” arguments came from scientific authority though.

Same with “not transmitted via the air” and dismissing the lab leak hypothesis.

I’m not arguing with a partisan position - partisanship is what lead to a lot of dumb positions from scientific authority (and politicians too obviously).

You are citing points whereby there was confusion about the scientific consensus, but what has been the overarching consensus this whole time? It hasn't been masks don't work, it hasn't been social distancing doesn't work and it hasn't been "not transmitted via the air".
Respectfully, I think you’re cherry picking the current (more correct) understanding and missing what the consensus was at the time with the benefit of hindsight.

At the time “masks don’t work, “it’s not airborne”, and especially “it wasn’t a lab leak” were the overarching consensus - it was a handful of minority voices that pushed back on this, and they were not the authority.

The authorities largely failed us, my guess is because of political partisanship and motivated reasoning (along with a weaker MSM with bad journalists and some CCP pressure on WHO).

It was largely specific individual voices that were more correct at each step, rather than authority. The trick is you had to be able to tell which ones.

Are we saying vaccines are not the solution?
The majority of the world is not vaccinated. Hell, in some US states the majority is not vaccinated.
I think you’re talking past each other. Is the virus still with us (your point)? Yes. Do we have a potent and effective vaccine which, for vaccinated persons means the virus is no longer a threat (the other person’s point)? Yes.
Do we have enough supplies of those vaccines yet, worldwide? Have we vaccinated sufficient people yet, worldwide?

Sadly, no and no.

Even in many US states it's also not enough yet.

And many countries must be looking at their situation regarding vaccine production in general, particularly dependency on other countries, and finding that to be something that they want to secure for themselves.

> for vaccinated persons means the virus is no longer a threat

I would call it a much diminished threat, which would be further diminished by vaccinating more other people, rather than "no threat".

Still not enough vaccinated for herd immunity. And considering the effectiveness of the vaccine drops from ~95% to ~65% 6 months after (around more for a majority of people) then it's looking further from all clear.
We were vaccinated enough for heard immunity from the original variants. That’s why infections were cratering even in places with no social distancing rules.

Delta variant is probably going to change that. Some parts of the country will have a delta wave. But it’s going to be mostly in vaccinated people with serious infections.

Outside the northeast, US states are barely above 50%.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-r...

(link says march-15, page is updated through July 8)

You can probably add another 15%-20% from recovered immunity.