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by richardwhiuk 1811 days ago
The maximal lockdown is way too minimal.
1 comments

According to the game's about page[1], the model is based on the paper Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19[2]. The maximal lockdown is the combination of all the interventions studied in that paper: limit gatherings to 10 people, close all non-essential businesses, close schools, close universities, and order everyone to stay at home. The only thing more restrictive would be to put everyone under house arrest, which is simply not possible outside of an authoritarian dictatorship.

Moreover, law enforcement isn't perfect at enforcing laws. If you lock down too much for too long, more and more people will ignore the rules. Eventually people will start to protest and rebel. If the government persists, leadership will be removed through impeachment or other methods.

This game (and many other data sources) are discussed in the Astral Codex Ten post Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know.[3]

1. https://koronahra.cz/about

2. https://sci-hub.st/10.1126/science.abd9338

3. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lockdown-effectiveness...

The UK's lockdown policies were much more strict than those outlined.