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by signal11 1813 days ago
If I understand this right, this is not just the heat, but the humidity as well. The UK Daily Telegraph had an article[1] about how nearby Jacobabad crossed the 35C wet bulb reading threshold, at which point — according to the article — the body can no longer cool itself.

I assume Karachi isn’t that bad yet. A cursory Google search showed a wet bulb reading of 27C for Karachi — still very hot but not life-threateningly so. In fact, the Telegraph article notes that those who can afford it spend the summer in Quetta or Karachi.

Of course this article also focuses on the cost of electricity and air conditioning, which is a major factor as well.

[1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people...

7 comments

> I assume Karachi isn’t that bad yet.

Weather or climate? Weather is incidental. In terms of climate, further increases for decades are locked in from past emissions we can't change.

For the present, at each moment, we can choose to contribute to further suffering or not. As you mentioned, it's becoming life-threatening.

Exactly two things work: reducing our consumption and reducing our birth rate. Mechai Viravaidya in Thailand showed how to reduce birth rate in the opposite of China's One Child policy or eugenics -- that is, voluntary, noncoercive, even fun -- as did Costa Rica, Iran, and several other countries. Most Americans can improve their quality of life by lowering consumption. I reduced mine over 90% with just life improvements. I estimate most Americans can reduce theirs 80% or more without sacrifice, just improvements. The most polluting can probably reduce theirs 99%.

Systemic change begins with personal transformation. Government and corporations will follow individual action, as they historically have. Personal transformation enables us to lead others. Leading others has the biggest effect because it multiplies.

To act here and now, the most important thing we can do is to learn leadership skills to lead ourselves and others.

> The UK Daily Telegraph had an article about how nearby Jacobabad crossed the 35C wet bulb reading threshold, at which point — according to the article — the body can no longer cool itself.

Not quite. At 35C, the body can no longer maintain a normal body temperature, and simply standing outside in the shade will cause everyone to run a fever. However, a degree of fever is not dangerous in otherwise healthy individuals. So at 35C people can cool themselves, but only at an elevated temperature.

However, add a degree above that, and all the elderly and infirm will die. Add two degrees, and even healthy people start dropping like flies.

Humidity is the killer at those temperature ranges. Here we got a bit of a micro-climate because of large bodies of water and whenever temperature goes past 25ºC it's already highly uncomfortable, whereas 25ºC in other parts of the country, even the ones known as hot, is rather comfortable. Just a couple kilometers north, 35ºC are barely noticeable in comparison, even under the sun. (Sure makes your skin burn with all the fury of Helios, but it doesn't make you dizzy and tired like a high humidity area does at much lower temps)

Our highest registered temperature was an exceptional peak of 52ºC for two days. Was a bit of a massacre, specially on elders. There's no record of those days publicly for some reason, but all locals remember it well.

The high humidity saturation seems to negatively affect evaporation of sweat, making you constantly drenched even with no clothes on. It's a kind of hell you can't escape, only hope it passes soon.

The issue with wet bulb temperature is even worse.

You don't need to have an average to hit anywhere close to it.

Just one single event, wave of temperature over 36 degrees is most likely going to kill millions of people if it hits densely populated area with people having no infrastructure to cool themselves. And no, spraying with water will not help, by very definition.

I guess jumping into a body of water which has a cooler temperature would still help? Jumping into water which is 36 degrees or warmer wouldn't.
This is India. A lot of people just don't live close to a body of water. Getting any water is a huge issue.

Can you imagine millions of people running to cool in the river? What with elderly and children?

Pakistan, not India
Obviously, you are right. Thanks.
Akhand Bharat /s
Sheesh, I'm just asking in general about the body, not about logistics...
It depends because wet bulb temperature is normally significantly below ambient temperature. If ambient temperature was 45C a large body of water might be at 38C while wet bulb was 36C. At which point jumping into the water would be a bad idea.

It really just comes down to infrastructure. It’s possible to prepare for such events, but without large scale preparation they turn deadly.

Water conducts heat better than air. At exactly 36C wet bulb poeple would be running a fever but a large body of water would cool them better than air at 36C.

However, 100% humidity is rare it’s normal for the actual temperature to be higher than the wet bulb temperature. So local large bodies of water might actually be significantly higher than 36C at the time.

That's what I did when I lived without AC where it gets above 100F with high humidity. I would fill up the bathtub will cold water and cool off that way every few hours during the day when I was at home. I guess the water came from underground storage, it was plenty cold enough for that purpose.
It was 116 in Portland last week. Even with low humidity, it was hell. No A/C in most homes. Never got below 80-something in my apartment for 3 days.

Hot is hot.

>I assume Karachi isn’t that bad yet.

This site is showing quite a bit higher than 27C wet-bulb temp:

https://meteologix.com/pk/observations/pakistan/wet-bulb-tem...

That’s the site I referred to as well, but I found it a bit hard to use, with the ads and all.

Am I reading the map right? Karachi to me shows 27. But scarily for other places there’s 39 and even 41 in there.

Yes, that area (Jacobabad[1], Sukkur, ...) is not habitable without the use of AC/underground dwellings.

[1] - https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/science/swelterin...

You could argue that lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty will make things worse. They will all want air-conditioning.
And they deserve it the same as any of us. We need to do the work so them having that same comfort we've enjoyed for over half a century doesn't destroy the environment further.