[Proven]

> Not AI yet but it shows how the economy could be centrally planned using technology.

Nonsense. Hayek explained why that can't work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fatal_Conceit

Of course, it can be planned - Lenin and Stalin showed that. Just make an AI that emulates those two geniuses.

But the results would be equally great like they were in Soviet Russia or Mao's China. Why would anyone in a centrally planned economy work beyond the bare minimum needed to survive?

It's hilarious that someone has to call you out on that. HN...

> Pinochet's coup ended the experiment.

I won't say that the coup was great, but it likely did less damage to the people than Cybersyn would have done.

[pietrovismara]

> But the results would be equally great like they were in Soviet Russia or Mao's China.

That's your HUGE assumption. While I didn't make any assumption, you are making a big leap of faith here without anything to back it. Pretty much what I would call nonsense.

> Why would anyone in a centrally planned economy work beyond the bare minimum needed to survive?

Sigh. I don't know, maybe ask the many artists, intellectuals, sportsmen, scientists, etc that came out of URSS? How can you be so certain about human nature when nobody can agree on that?

> Nonsense. Hayek explained why that can't work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fatal_Conceit

Ah yes, Hayek, the economist accomplice of the brutal Pinochet's dictatorship. Definitely someone without a strong bias.

Funny that they could only force people into the "free" market under the authority of a dictatorship born from a military coup.

[sudosysgen]

Hayek did not, actually. His argument for it can't work but it can work using markets assumes P=NP and that humans are capable of running algorithms that computers can't, but only when they act as perfectly self interested rational actors.

[betwixthewires]

It does not assume P=NP as far as I can tell, unless you understand something I've missed? I'd be very interested in an explanation for how a market assumes P=NP, if I got one I'd basically be done with the concept of markets because I do not believe P=NP.

A market economy is a distributed network, a self healing network and a self organizing network that optimizes itself for resource distribution, an emergent property of human populations with asymmetric distribution. The network itself runs algorithms much more efficiently than a centrally planned economy which does not have these traits. A sufficiently powerful AI could perform as well as a market economy, but it would be redundant and have other effects, such as taking agency from the benefactors of the economy. I don't know that it could outperform a market economy, it's possible that it could but so far I'm not sure.

[sudosysgen]

The problem of maximizing your self-interest in a market is general enough that finding a solution to it can require solving an NP-hard problem. This is actually true, real financial problems are NP-hard.

The market does not optimize for resource distribution, it optimizes for profit. It is tyrannical in that it removes your agency, as a member of the market you have no other choice but to optimize for profit in many important situations.

This is already dysfunctional enough to completely destroy a society, so we have to implement fictions like IP and regulations to tame the beast.

As far as central planning goes it's certainly possible to plan an economy while allowing people to choose their jobs and start small companies.

A sufficiently advanced AI would inevitably be more efficient, simply releasing all IP restrictions, all binning that is not necessary, ending all unproductive landlordism, and the compound growth from the lack of crises would do it.

Now you could be opposed to it from an ideological point of view, but no matter what you're misstating Hayek's point, as he contends that it is not, actually, possible to perform the economic calculation outside of markets, due to computing brain magic of humans only when they act that way.

Also, the mere principle that a market can run the economic calculations more efficiently than another computer is a violation of the Church-Turing hypothesis. There is no machine that we know of that can do any computation with better complexity than a Turing machine, save for quantum computing.

[betwixthewires]

Do you have an example of an NP hard problem a person would have to solve on the process of optimizing for self interest?

A market optimizes for whatever the participant wants, profit is simply a mechanism by which the overall market performs price discovery. You always have a choice to not optimize for profit, I make trades all the time where profit is not my goal.

Just choosing a job and being kindly allowed a small local marketplace is not agency.

Hayek's point would obviously violate the church-turing hypothesis (unless there's some hitherto unknown quantum-esque computation process going on in the human brain which I doubt, or you're mischaracterizing his point, I'm reading his book as we speak) but I believe that a sufficiently advanced machine capable of outperforming the market given equatable conditions (same information availability and processing) would probably perform those functions with less resource efficiency, not to mention the resources to build a redundant machine we don't need. If you build one that is better by using more energy and resources to scale its capabilities up, well now you're not optimizing resources on the whole because you're dedicating some for this machine to exist and operate, the resources to build the machine and maintain operation are then distributed suboptimally.

If a machine that uses the same net resources for this task and with equal capabilities could outperform the marketplace at efficiently distributing resources, and there are NP hard problems in personal finance, wouldn't that mean P=NP?

[sudosysgen]

I'm on my phone right now, but there is a paper on the exact P=NP efficient market question.

I don't assume that planning an economy would require solving NP-hard problems to outperform the market because I am certain that the market itself cannot solve them efficiently.

As for resources, us as a society already dedicate trillions of dollars a year to market planning - its called profits and capital gains, as well as the entire finance and real estate industry. As long as the planning system requires less than a trillion dollars a year to run even without being more efficient than the market at whichever cost function we choose it will be more efficient overall.

[betwixthewires]

> I don't assume that planning an economy would require solving NP-hard problems to outperform the market because I am certain that the market itself cannot solve them efficiently.

That sounds to me like an ideological position, which is fine of course.

But the question arises, if solving distribution problems requires a participant to solve NP hard problems as you've said (I'd appreciate a link to that paper whenever you can get around to it, I seriously do want to read it and am not just shouting "source", same goes for the distributed planning in anarchist planned economies we were discussing in another thread) then how would that not be true for a machine? Either the problem is NP hard or it isn't, regardless of what entity is trying to solve it.