[skissane]

Thank you. I think this discussion makes more sense if one has a basic understanding of Bayesianism – one starts with a prior probability, one then has various pieces of evidence and associated conditional probabilities than one uses to update that probability, and then one arrives at a posterior probability after updating based on those pieces of evidence. I was talking about the conditional probability for one particular piece of evidence; I was never saying anything about the prior or posterior probability. Obviously you, and others, get this, but it seems bellyfullofbac doesn't.