[richk449]

That’s a great analysis, but I think there is one more aspect which needs to be considered. The decision should not be purely individual, since there is a tragedy of the commons aspect. To any individual, the risks of Covid are relatively low, and the long term risks of the vaccine are hard to know, so personally choosing not to get the vaccine seems reasonable. Yet if every individual makes that same calculation, we won’t reach herd immunity, and the risk to everyone will go up as a consequence. This is one of those situations were each individual making the best choice for themselves doesn’t result in the best result for everyone.

[gfodor]

I agree that is a factor I did not explicitly cover but is part of the choice involved as an individual. I think this is modulated somewhat by the fact that at this point anyone who wants a vaccine has got one, other than kids. So at some point it should be a marginal concern when weighing the personal risks against the network effects you will be accelerating.

[chrismcb]

But the risks to everyone won't go up. Before anyone gets the vaccine, the risks of covid are relatively low. That risk won't go up. It may not go down, but it won't go up.

[richk449]

Sure, as long as we continue to keep restaurants and bars closed and wear masks and social distance, the risk will remain low. How long is it realistic to keep doing that?