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by gccs 1812 days ago
There is a shortage of engineers because companies don't want to pay them what their worth.
3 comments

This gets spouted all the time on HN, and I find it rarely to be true, or at least a gross oversimplification.

In my experience what usually happens is a programmer's "worth" is hugely dependent on the scale of the organization, moreso than nearly every other individual contributor-level role, which means that smaller orgs have an extremely difficult time competing with larger orgs.

For example, suppose at some company there is a business process that generates $1 billion in annual revenue, and a programmer has implemented something that can increase that by, say, .2%. So the programmer's "worth" in that situation is 2 million dollars.

A much smaller company only does $10 million in annual revenue, so the commensurate .2% improvement is only worth 20k.

This is a gross oversimplification, of course, but it really gets to the heart of way the FAANGS can pay such huge salaries and suck up a lot of the best talent. It's not that all the other companies are being stingy, it's just that in many cases they can't pay a programmer anywhere near what a FAANG can because that programmer just can't generate that much business value at a smaller company.

It kinda goes the other way too though, no? A business generating $1 billion in revenue might have 10k employees. A smaller company doing $10 million in revenue might have 100. The commensurate value of a given employee is not that different.

And the number of employees also affects the types of efficiencies you can introduce; the likelihood of finding something that will increase revenue at a higher percentage for a large company is drastically lower than the likelihood of finding something that will increase revenue at a higher percentage for a small company. And that's if it's percentage based in the first place, rather than fixed savings.

Anyway, relatedly, it has more to do with the fact that a lot of the leading tech companies have a high amount of revenue -per employee-. That is, revenue/employee = big number. There's a few different reasons for that, but that's the main thing. Per the example above, it's really more like a company doing $1 billion in revenue has 10k employees, and another doing $100 million has 5k employees. Obviously the former has more to spend on employees, as they're generating more with fewer.

An annoying and more complicated (but perhaps not less accurate) heuristic is that the revenue of the company is related to the sum of prior work. For a product company, the number of features drives use more than the rate of new features being added.

Under that model taken as-is there are some interesting features:

- The company could fire all the engineers and coast if the product is "done". Mostly reasonable, though products are never done.

- More "solve for the equilibrium", engineers are paid for the present value of their contributions rather than some proportion of current revenues. Depends on the company either being well-funded, paying in stock, or being able to take on debt. Again, rings true-ish? Hard to measure so obviously expected present value will differ greatly from the actual value.

The only reason there's a shortage of housing is because people don't want to pay what housing is worth.
If there is a house shortage - prices will go up - the problem with the dev job market is that's its a market for lemons. You cant tell if someone is a good dev unless you yourself is a good dev.
Not even then, until you've hired them. Interviewing is a joke.
Yeah, and even "good engineers" can take jobs that they don't do well at. It's weird how this works and seems in many cases not related only to the job or type of work, but many factors both on and off the job. I think this is the reason hiring is so hard, because there are factors not taken into account that have a real effect on how well a person does at some particular job.
There is no housing shortage among the rich.

There may be a profit shortage among companies claiming they can't find people to hire.

There is a shortage of engineers if companies can't afford to pay them.