| You're right - not the best analogy in this case. Not sure about the race car though. I will think about that. Analogies aside... Let's agree that estimation is possible to a certain degree. We know this and accept the inherent uncertainty. Modern project management is whole sale copied from industrial construction and manufacturing. It seems no one stopped to ask whether the same logic applies to software creation. And it doesn't. The business side of IT is stuck in a mental model build on construction and manufacturing. Yet the process of creating software contains neither of those concepts with the exception of automated build and deploy (and costs for those are negligible). It is also interesting that no distinct vocabulary for software exists. We build, deploy, construct, have factories and so forth. Again copied from disciplines which are complicated - but not complex. It is not possible to obtain the information you refer to by analysis. That's a property of a complex system. Analysis of parts neglects the interaction between parts and in software more or less everything is connected. This is one of the reasons why we cannot forecast weather and why we cannot reliably estimate software. Now, if I start my explanation this way I'm also sure to lose their attention. So what do we do? Which intellectual approach will captivate these people, retain their attention and at least plant a seed of doubt in the established way of working? |