[notahacker]

The question isn't whether women should assume that a transperson is less likely to rape them than any other stranger. That's not what "bathroom bills" are about.

The question is whether bathroom bills forcing transpeople who wish to not break the law (potential rapists are obviously not part of this set...) into men's bathrooms, and a surrounding climate of generalised hostility towards anyone with any remotely masculine element of their physique or style in women's bathrooms actually meaningfully reduces the risk of rape, or just makes the environment more intimidating for everyone.