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by carom 1826 days ago
>does one dare imagine that a dozen or more others weren't damn close

I think about this in the computer security industry, and my conclusion is that no, they were not. You do this in depth research on a niche topic. You submit it to an industry conference with 1000 attendees, 100 people attend your talk, 10 have the background understanding for it, and it is relevant to 1 other person's work.

There is a surprisingly finite number of people working on certain problems. I am working on a hypervisor for binary instrumentation right now. It is because a single person streamed themselves building one over the course of a week. [1] How many other people watched the hours of video and were inspired to undertake such a project? I know of 1 other. The community is small, but let's extrapolate that to 5 people.

I am not saying we are working on something so revolutionary, but on a rather niche problem, there are less than half a dozen people working on it. We also have other obligations in life like work, school, or personal relationships. So it is likely there will only be 1 or 2 applications fully realized.

Could someone else do it? Absolutely, but very few are motivated on such a specific problem. They may have an interest in some other topic instead.

1. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLSkhUfcCXvqHsOy2VUxuo...

2 comments

It's definitely true that as knowledge and research become deeper and more specialized that few people realistically can be sufficiently immersed in it to even have an idea of what the Hard Problems that are Nonetheless Regarded as Probably Tractable are, let alone the background and time to work on them.
And yet - meltdown and spectre were both independently discovered by multiple separate teams.