> Why is keeping nice with the Saudi family so important? Why does the US government bend over backwards to cover up for them?
Because they spawn outfits who ram airplanes into skyscrapers. I see no logic in this, but some "expert geopolitical strategists" do. Same with Israel, sinks USS Liberty, and then people on the hill go orgasmic, because "higher meaning" — whatever that means.
A simpler explanation which seems to be much more believable: great amounts of money spent by them to keep the whole US political establishment wined, dined, well moneyed, and happy.
One of the teachers at a major Israeli military university claims that Israel is intentionally acting like a mad dog i.e. willing to take down the rest of the world with them should they go down, and that most European capitols are a target for their airforce. Whether that's rhetoric or reality, I don't think anyone intends to find out.[0]
The point of the "mad dog" approach is not to win, but to let others know you will take them down with you, with the idea being that they will do what you want out of fear.
He was not threatening enough, nor possess the mental capabilities to pull off that strategy. That strategy only works if you display the willingness to act, and the cleverness to act in such a way that demonstrates you know exactly where your opponent is weakest.
He was willing to act, his actions just always missed their mark.
> Same with Israel, sinks USS Liberty, and then people on the hill go orgasmic, because "higher meaning" — whatever that means.
I don't think it's fair to compare Israel with Saudi. The former is a functioning democracy and is ranks significantly better that its neighbors when it comes to Civil liberties.
> It's not a functioning democracy, half of its population has no voting rights.
Exactly which "half" we are talking about here?
> And it's always been antagonistic with US, despite making pretty face.
They are a de-facto US ally. Doesn't matter how they behave publicly.
> And, yes, they are in bed with the Saudis, now quite openly.
What does that even mean? Pretty much every liberal democracy which recognizes the Saudi royal family and has economic ties with the kingdom is in "bed" with Saudis by that logic.
"Major US Supplier" is the shorthand. It's strictly inaccurate, but not a bad first gloss.
The deeper reality is that Saudi Arabia have provided (or occasionally withheld) stability to global oil markets since the early 1970s.
KSA are the world's reserve capacity supplier of oil. Given that world transacts globally and is a highly liquid commodity (in the economic sense), *even where KSA don't directly provide the US with much of its oil, the Kingdom's management of production and leadership in OPEC have a profound impact on global oil and through it, global economic and strategic stability.
There are countries with larger total oil reserves, more exports, and greater production (Venezuela, Russia, and the United States, respectively). Saudi Arabia's strengths are the quality of its oil ("light sweet crude", as contrasted with heavy sour crude from Venezuela, which requires light volatiles simply to extract it from the ground, hence periodic headlines about the US "selling oil to Venezuela", which is more misleading than informative), and the low cost of extraction. Additionally, Saudi Arabia have excess capacity --- their pumps are not running full out --- which means that by increasing or decreasing their supply, they can effectively set global oil prices. (Again: liquid assets, it's possible to move $100 of oil by tanker for about $1 in fuel, making arbitrage and cross-supply highly viable, unlike far less readily handled fuels including coal and natural gas, both of which require special handling.)
Nah, rich Arabs always diversify their weapons suppliers. If the US doesn't want to earn tens of billions of dollars there's always France, Russia, etc.
No they can’t. If they buy certain Russian things the US will stop. Look at what happened when Turkey bought Russia’s air defense systems. They lost F-35s over it[1].
Vendor lock in. It’s hard to walk away from billions of dollars of hardware…
And just because the USA does buy and use Saudi oil, doesn’t mean American oil companies aren’t pumping it, shipping it or profiting from its sale. And it’s sold in US dollars
Oil is often singled out and important not because the US is dependent on Saudi oil but also because it depends on the Saudi's not dumping oil and undercutting the prices of US producers (and thus bankrupting them). But, I'd say it's more complicated than that and also is related to trillions of dollars in trade, military funding, contracting, etc across the region.
The Saudi's are a very loyal supporter of US policy for all of that and their country is very strategically located in the region and a big reason why the US has been able to exert power there for so long. E.g. Saudi support was crucial for both Gulf wars, the Sudan invasion, and more recently the conflicts in Syria, Afghanistan, Lebanon, etc.
Being able to park some aircraft carriers off the coast of Saudi Arabia is also helpful when it comes to controlling the Iranians of course. That's technically a long series of proxy wars but of course the US has been battling with them ever since the Iranian revolution all over the region in a long series of proxy wars that usually also involve the Saudis. Ugly but very profitable.
So, oil, money, and strategic value basically. You could pass some moral judgement on that but in the end most wars are about economic interests. And the interests of the US are worth trillions of dollars.
One theory is “petro dollars” - Saudi Arabia mandates all of their oil is purchased in dollars, thus ensuring global demand for dollars as every country needs oil. In return, the US has their back unconditionally. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling#Petrod...
I’m sure it’s been asked and answered before but is there a realistic alternative to USD for such transactions? I imagine Euros would be the next-best bet, being the second-most traded currency.
Edit: While I don’t agree with the person below who replied saying crypto could fill this gap, I don’t think they should be downvoted to the point where we can’t reply. I even hit the “vouch” button but it’s still not possible.
So back in the 00s Iraq tried to use Euros then got invaded and then reverted to USD. A couple of other near-pariah states (Iran and Libya) have offered to accept Gold and/or Euro but it hasn’t taken off. It’s interesting right enough and should maybe considered a warning to anyone who does think about shifting away from USD, but I’m still curious if there’s even a small amount of consideration given to alternatives today
The Saudis are kind of like a Bishop (our chess piece) checking a Knight (Iran) from doing anything too nuts (and once upon of time, Iraq). I’d also say they act a little bit like West Germany as a forward base against the Soviet threat (kind of an old model at this point, Obama mostly wanted to steer our forces east toward China going forward). Israel got hip to this too. The alliance is really Saudi Arabia, America, Israel.
In fact, I’d say they are a check on a region that could easily fall under the influence of Iran, Russia, and China. Global oil supply being messed with in a destabilized region is a concern, and festering of Islamic terrorism (think about how Russia let’s ransomware terrorists fester).
Russia would go pretty far to destabilize oil in that region. Plus, they are for sale. If we don’t pay them, China will.
The price for all of this is the same price the devil always charges - your soul and values. Genocide in Yemen in 2020, murdering of journalists (in an embassy, goodness), all done with impunity.
The thing is to use the Saudis to keep Iran in check is like using the devil to keep a daemon in check. Iran (as bad it may be) is a much freer society than Saudi Arabia, and support for terrorism can't be an argument either because Saudi Arabia is a primary supporter of Islamic terrorism in the world. Moreover, the demonisation of Iran together with the support for Saudi Arabia has likely strengthened the hardliners in Iran and made the region much less stable.
The family calls the shots there and I don't think many people will appreciate a Saudi Arabia which is in a military alliance with Russia or China.
To a considerable extent, the family also ensures a stable leadership and rule of law. A decade back, I would have supported forceful overthrow of the family. However, after observing Arab "Spring" and its implications in Syria and Libya, I am dead certain that I do not want a power vacuum in Saudi Arabia.
Let me give a little more context. Saudi Arabia had a relationship with the US early on and it was US contractors who developed the oil there initially. This is a very old relationship, basically it is the bases of Saudi Arabia, the realized early how powerful to US was and attached themselves.
The Saudi were very anti-Communist and opposed Arab nationalist (a 'socialist' type regime) in Egypt. In a period known as 'Arab Cold War'.
There was a fear that most of the middle east would unify under Arab nationalism. The Saudi were opposed that.
A second important part is the sale of oil, people will often argue that this is less important now because domestic production. However it was always more about European and later Asian allies of the US and ensuring oil for them.
The relations were at is worse during the oil crisis. However once the Iranian revolution happened, and Iran was no longer an US ally there was major fear of Soviet invasion or Iranian revolution spreadng. Jimmy Carter declared the 'Carter doctrine':
> Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.
Since their major client Iran was gone the US basically 'had to' depend on Saudi Arabia.
This was then majorly expanded upon by Reagan. While up to this point, relation were diplomatic (and CIA blabla) under Reagan there was a militarization. Bases were starting to build in the region and the US wanted to sell more weapons to the Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain as well.
The US started to build bases in Saudi itself during the first Golf War (that was the major reason for 9/11 btw).
Since 9/11 despise what the general population wants (and correctly believes), politically the US sees Saudi as a major ally in the 'fight for terrorism' when it is convenient but the consistent opposition to Iran is arguably the more important part.
Saudi Arabia has also totally sold out the Palestinians and has been practically allied with Israel.
So here are why the US politicians continue this 'partnership':
- Major oil state that insures sale to European and Asian allies
- Oppose Iran
- Oppose the Islamic Brotherhood (Saudi paid for the overthrow of the Egyptian 'democracy')
- Saudi regime drove AQAP (Al Quida Arab Peninsula) out of Saudi and pretends to fight them in Yemen
- Saudi (and golf state) buy a gigantic amount weapons to the point where Trump basically treated the Crown Prince like cash cow and made him do TV ads with him
- Saudi spend a lot of lobbying and fund many of the 'think tanks'
- Saudi and Israel get along
However, this episode here that so many people car about is literally never what the US cared about. An allied regime killing journalist is about as interesting as empty glass of water. To me this is a total non-story.
This is only a media outrage story. The US routinely helps in repression of journalists and what the US/Saudi are doing in Yemen is about a million times were the this Khashoggi thing. Not to mention that they are also oppressing and killing journalist there too, but I guess there are not good videos of it so it can be safely ignored.
In my opinion the whole strategic approach the US has towards the Saudi and the Middle East in general is fundamentally flawed and pilled on top of a whole bunch of wrong assumption.
Unfortunately realignment in foreign policy is very difficult. With Israel and Saudi (and co) money continually buying of congress/Washington while Iran and others don't have such powerful lobbying organizations within the US.
> Unfortunately realignment in foreign policy is very difficult. With Israel and Saudi (and co) money continually buying of congress/Washington while Iran and others don't have such powerful lobbying organizations within the US.
At the moment Iran and its proxies are actively threatening the US and its allies. Stopping that will be a prerequisite for any lobbying attempt.
Or maybe the US and its allies actively pursue shit that's threatening to the Iranians? Eg: Yemen, Syria, etc.
Let's drop the farcical argument about how the Iranian programme is a threat to US interests. Meanwhile the tiny UAE can actively buy nuclear tech from the US, while also letting the Chinese build a military base and themselves building a base in Djibouti. Or the Saudis who can easily acquire a nuclear weapon from Pakistan with far less effort than the Iranians can with their nuclear program, nuke or not (because the Saudis funded the Pakistani nuclear programme, and above was one of the conditions).
Iran is currently "threatened" by 3 potential or active nuclear US allies - Israel, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, so bad guys or not, geopolitics dictates that they too have to acquire nukes to maintain their survival. For the very reason that North Korea still exists while Ukraine has been invaded.
Yes and SA, Qatar give help to tons of groups that threaten to US (so does the US) and Turkey helped out ISIS and yet they are allies.
Apparently those things are not prerequisites to do lobbying. Or SA enacting basically a genocide in Yemen. Apparently that shouldn't stop lobbying.
However Iran is not and has not been actively engaging the US since Bush Jr Iraq War.
In fact Iran saved US allies in the region form ISIS. Iran was practically an ally of the US against ISIS. No Shia militia or Iran allied force has attacked the US in any way.
I would argue AQ types are a far bigger danger to actual US people then any Iranian militia and those don't get financing form Iran and its allies.
Not to mention Israel and what they are doing to Palestinians (and not to mention they are a rough nuclear nation) but of course "Iran is 'threading'" so of course that is simply not acceptable.
If you go to Washington DC and go to the Watergate Hotel, right across the street and not on Embassy Row is the massive Saudi Embassy, reminding everyone who comes in over Teddy Roosevelt Bridge who runs barter town.
Embassy size doesn’t correlate with power. This is easy to observe in various European countries, where the Russians managed to hold on to their huge Soviet-era embassies, even though their contemporary influence is far lower.
There is a really interesting dynamic where the Saudis have basically pushed the line of thinking that they have a special relationship with us going back to WWII or WWI. I generally am a bit skeptical of Cato Institute but they had a great podcast with Prof Robert Vitalis about this that shed a ton of light on exactly this question for me.
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/americas-oil-myths/id1...
They are a client kingdom loyal to the US. How have we bent over backwards to cover up for them? The general consensus seems to be that Saudi Arabia was definitely responsible, and very little is being done about that.
Historically, the least bad option in maintaining supply of the fuel of civilization and countering Iran, Russian, and Chinese influence. Such is geopolitics.
My guess is the slack in the oil supply will be taken up by other industries as the reduced demand from transport will leave large supply dropping the price for them. So I expect various chemical, plastic, pharmaceutical, pesticide, and fertilizer companies will use all of that oil.
You already can see companies, eg Shell and Exxon investing heavily in their "chemical complex" refineries, and selling off refineries that only process fuel.
Oil is a fungible market. The Saudis have to sell it to someone, and selling it to someone besides the US just frees up other suppliers to sell to the US.
They sell oil for dollars. They give the dollars to the fed and 101 other institutions as loans, those institutions lend the money to the government and private groups.
China does the same only they sell goods for dollars instead of oil.
Because they spawn outfits who ram airplanes into skyscrapers. I see no logic in this, but some "expert geopolitical strategists" do. Same with Israel, sinks USS Liberty, and then people on the hill go orgasmic, because "higher meaning" — whatever that means.
A simpler explanation which seems to be much more believable: great amounts of money spent by them to keep the whole US political establishment wined, dined, well moneyed, and happy.