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by jahller 1818 days ago
this would be the best usage for what we consider cars imaginable. also would negate the need to personally own a car. just order one from a fleet of autonomous cars if you are in need of mobility.
2 comments

Ideally yes, but there's a lot of hurdles to overcome. For many it would work just fine, but for other there's going to be minor details that makes it work less well.

Firstly we need to spread out peoples work day. We can't all be at the office a 8:00, and go home at 16:00. it wouldn't make economical sense in have a fleet large enough to handle peak hours, but have the cars do nothing most of the day.

There's also details like: I would like a car to pick me up at 15:45, and drive me to the kindergarten, and that car MUST have a seat for a three year old (but not a seat of brand X, Y, or Z, because they're to small). Or I need a car with a trailer, or a truck, because I'm moving 500kg of dirt to the recycling station.

Most people shop around for cars and pick very specific cars that fit their needs. So renting for a fleet of cars also need a rather large variety and flexibility in allowed usage.

I believe that many would still want to buy their own cars, even if it's self-driving, to ensure it's available when they need it, and that it fulfil their specific needs.

If we didn't have all these specific needs, most of us could just take the bus, which in turn would make it feasible to have all the bus routes people would need.

> it wouldn't make economical sense in have a fleet large enough to handle peak hours, but have the cars do nothing most of the day.

But that’s the current state of the world.

Even if you have enough cars to meet peak demand you will have an efficiency saving (at least where I live you see a lot of cars in driveways during rush hour traffic).

That said I agree that for a lot of people their car is an extension of their home, they’ll keep the golf clubs and a coat in the boot etc. But for the 80% case of just carrying a rucksack to and from work there is a massive efficiency improvement to be had.

> But that’s the current state of the world.

True, but the difference is who's carrying the financial risk of the buying the car. Right now it's the individual consumers, who are mostly forced to do so, because better alternatives are not available.

Leasing companies would never buy a fleet of cars that would sit mostly unused. Their cars needs to be on the road most of the time.

This puts us back in Uber vs. taxis. Uber works because (depending on area and regulation) there cannot be sufficient taxis to handle peak demands, that wouldn't be financially sound for the taxi companies. Uber tries to fix this, by taping into idle cars in the driveways. A company that maintains a fleet of cars that you can just order on-demand, would always have to few cars for rush hour.

> True, but the difference is who's carrying the financial risk of the buying the car. Right now it's the individual consumers, who are mostly forced to do so, because better alternatives are not available.

car-sharing already exists on a large scale in German capitals. you can park and pickup cars from e.g. Sixt or Share Now everywhere within a marked area. the business model for owning and maintaining a big fleet is already there.

The fleet would be sized to whatever was profitable. If people were willing to pay more at rush hour, there would be some capacity to capture that demand.

Thinking through what it costs me to own a car, I'm going to carefully do the math if they price my trip into the office at more than about $5 (it's a short drive). That's probably the bigger problem.

The market solves these problems so we don’t have to.

It is extremely common for markets to face bursts in demand at peak times, and yet somehow we always find a sustainable equilibrium.

> it wouldn't make economical sense in have a fleet large enough to handle peak hours

Supply and demand with dynamic pricing will sort that out.

Consider also that autonomous vehicles could make much more efficient use of existing road capacity.

> If we didn't have all these specific needs, most of us could just take the bus

Buses do not take you directly to your preferred location, without stopping, with your own private space, etc.

>just order one from a fleet of autonomous cars if you are in need of mobility.

I find it confusing that one reason the tech crowd cheered on Uber's success was because taxis were often filthy and poorly maintained. But autonomous car fleets won't be?