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by jw1224 1832 days ago
> the vast majority of retail are buying calls

This is almost certainly NOT the case. Do you have any data to back this statement up?

The MOASS theory relies simply on retail investors buying and holding shares. On the rare occasion when someone posts to Superstonk about their GME options, the user is quickly warned against them, without fail, every single time I’ve seen it happen.

Retail investors were no doubt trading options through Robinhood back in January. But after all the drama back then, Robinhood has since suffered a mass exodus of users to different brokerages.

It’s clear from spending any time at places like Superstonk that retail investors who’ve read any of the DD have moved away from RH en masse. There was a big push across the community to do this back in February, but I appreciate this isn’t obvious knowledge to someone who hasn’t kept up-to-speed with it for the past 6 months. Options are normally only ever mentioned by uninformed new users.

2 comments

> The MOASS theory relies simply on retail investors buying and holding shares.

I should have been clear: I meant that in terms of options volumes (as was my lead into that claim about options volumes) that most retail are buying calls, as opposed to puts.

I have no doubt that in totality, most retail are just buying shares. But for those trading options, it is overwhelmingly calls.

> Robinhood has since suffered a mass exodus of users to different brokerages

Has it? Is there any public evidence that their user count is down?

I don’t think they’ve publicly disclosed their user counts, but a quick search for “Robinhood users leaving” brings back countless articles like these:

https://fortune.com/2021/02/19/robinhood-brand-damage-gamest...

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3655984-76-respondents-plan-to...

If you go to Superstonk and search for “Robinhood”, you’ll find hundreds of real-world examples backing up my claim.

Any Superstonk users posting screenshots from Robinhood were immediately encouraged by their peers to transfer their shares away, in a mass campaign on the subreddit spanning the course of several weeks. Users would post helpful guides to walk others through the process, which I’m sure I remember reaching the front page at points.

Today, screenshots of brokerage accounts are posted to Superstonk many times throughout the day. But I genuinely cannot remember the last time a user posted a screenshot from Robinhood. T212, eToro, WeBull — screenshots all day long. But there is little to suggest a meaningful number of Superstonk users still use RH.

(Side-note: interestingly, the Robinhood exodus helped provide further evidence suggesting shorts are still in trouble. Many users who transferred their shares away from Robinhood found the cost basis of their transferred shares to be wildly inaccurate — often hundreds of dollars above the price they actually paid for them).

Robinhood sent me some unsolicited recruitment a year and a half ago, where they claimed to have 10m users. Surely the number went up over the following year. Somehow, I don't think that hundreds of posts on a subreddit that is explicitly critical of Robinhood is evidence of a mass exodus.

I don't like Robinhood. They gamify investing (the two metrics they shared with me were number of users and average number of visits per day - which is a terrible metric for an investment platform). I have no desire for them to succeed. But what you've posted isn't evidence of a "mass exodus".

> but a quick search for “Robinhood users leaving” brings back countless articles like these:

>If you go to Superstonk and search for “Robinhood”, you’ll find hundreds of real-world examples backing up my claim.

All that proves is that robinhood is losing a bunch of superstonk users, but it doesn't say whether they're losing users in net or how much % of robinhood's userbase are made up of those users.

Well, yes… If you search Superstonk, it proves a bunch of Superstonk users have left.

But I also linked to an article in Fortune, suggesting 56% of users want to leave. This was not a survey of Superstonk users.

Until they release any numbers, the best we can do is speculate. However it seems to me that RH’s reputation was significantly damaged as a result of this.

They also have an ongoing class-action lawsuit from retail investors to sort out.

Just type “Robinhood review” in to Google, and you’ll see this extends far beyond the Reddit echo-chamber.