[lusis]

I can't recall the name off hand and my googlefu is failing me but there's a theory that says a system that supports multiple political parties eventually evolves (or devolves) into two parties.

I think there's a business correlary as well.

Markets aren't designed to support more than one or two players. There's not enough market share in a given space for it. Eventually you'll have first, second and everyone else. The people in first and second may change but there's always a disproportionate market share between number 2 and the rest of the pack.

You might want multiple COMPETITIVE players but you will rarely see it. Eventually the minor market folks will quit because it makes no sense financially to continue in the space.

[kenjackson]

Markets aren't designed to support more than one or two players. There's not enough market share in a given space for it. Eventually you'll have first, second and everyone else.

What are you talking about? I've never heard that anywhere before?

How many car makers are there? Honda, Toyota, Ford. Right there is three, and they're all pretty darn big. And this ignores some pretty large folk like Chevy, GM, Hyundai, BMW, Mercedes, and other household names.

How many PC computer makers? Dell, HP, Acer, Lenovo. Four, and all pretty big.

How many casual shoe makers? Nike, Reebok, New Balance, Adidas, Sketchers.

Retail stores? Macys, Sears, JCPennys, Walmart, Costco, Target.

There are tons of industries where there are more than two large players. IMO, it seems pretty clear that there will be at least three major players for mobile:

1) iOS. Only Apple. 2) Android 3) Some other phone that is licensed to the same OEMs that make Android devices. They want diversity so that a single company, like Motorola, can't just become the de facto leader. It's likely Windows Phone. Longshot is WebOS.

[canistr]

That doesn't mean that the two largest parties remain the most powerful forever. That's what makes it a theory.

For instance, look at state of the Canadian Parliament. For the longest time, the Conservative and Liberal parties were the two largest parties generally swapping power every couple of years. Now we see the Liberals have severely dropped in the power with the rise of the NDP to become the Official Opposition and being the second most voted party in Parliament. Even the Conservatives, who the hold, only garnered 40% of Canadian votes.

Again, what you're saying is a theory and it isn't even always the case.